From "The Daily Telegraph" 6th February 2016
"John Strafford, a former association chairman, who now runs the Campaign for Conservative Democracy said the "obvious home for disgruntled Conservatives will be UKIP". He said "For a long time Tory party members have supported leaving the European Union and unless Cameron pulls a rabbit out of the hat they are going to vote against him.
"These members who have been Conservatives for most of their lives will have to vote against their party for the first time. But once you start voting against your party you lose your attachment to it and when you lose your attachment you start looking around"