The following article was published on the Conservativehome web site on 1st May 2017
Conservatives must not let
the polls lull them into complacency
By
John Strafford
In recent days the following stories
have all appeared in the press: that the Conservatives have hit 50 per cent in
the polls; predictions of a 200-seat majority for Theresa May; that the Tories
may be the largest party in Wales and take up to 12 seats off the SNP; and that
UKIP is a busted flush.
Given that, it’s not hard to see why
Party strategists might be tempted to get complacent. But it would be very
foolish to do so – for beneath the good headlines the Conservatives face
serious challenges – not least of which is that, due to the Boundaries
Commission proposals not yet being in law, the Conservative Party starts this
campaign with a 20 seat disadvantage.
As for the polls, as the campaign
develops our buoyant scores will drift downwards from time to time – and seem
to have done so in recent days – with increases in Labour’s share of the vote
allowing the Opposition to claim that they have got momentum. At some
point the Conservative Party will have some bad news, most likely when the
decision is announced about whether there will be prosecutions regarding election
expenses, regardless of what the decision is.
The Labour Party also has a financial
war chest greater than the maximum amount it will be allowed to spend, due to a
vast increase in membership subscriptions, so in this general election it is
unlikely to be outspent by the Conservatives, unlike in the last election.
Membership could be a serious
handicap. Just consider the numbers for the main parties contesting this
election:
·
Labour: 520,000
·
Liberal Democrats: 100,000
·
Scottish Nationalists:
120,000
·
Conservatives: 150,000?
With activists of about 10 per cent
of membership, Labour is the only Party capable of mounting a ground campaign
across the nation. But our other two opponents don’t have to: the Liberal
Democrats will concentrate their forces on the seats they lost in the last
election, and the Scottish Nationalists only fight the 59 seats in
Scotland.
The Conservative Party does not have
sufficient members to fight a ground campaign across the United Kingdom. To
compete at the same level as the Scottish Nationalists do in Scotland, but on a
national basis, the Conservatives would need a million members.
So how do the Conservative overcome
this discrepancy? In the last General Election they targeted the 40 most
marginal seats held by the opposition (mainly Liberal Democrat seats) and
supported the 40 most vulnerable seats held by the Conservatives. The problem
in this election is that not only do we have multi-party politics but tactical
voting alliances intervening in the constituencies.
I do not need to remind you that in
addition to the parties already mentioned we have UKIP, Plaid Cymru, the Green
Party, plus the Democratic Unionists and sundry other parties in Northern
Ireland, whilst organisations such as Gina Miller’s Anti-Brexit group ‘Best for
Britain’ and Open Britain will also be intervening.
Given this confused picture, what and
where are the marginal seats? Some “guess work” will be required to decide
where to put our resources – but it is “guess work” and it could go horribly
wrong.
The chickens are coming home to roost
for the Conservative Party. For too long the membership has been neglected, and
to prevent such a situation like this happening again radical action will need
to be taken after the general election. More effort will be required in the use
of social media and modern electioneering technology, but that can only do so
much at the crunch to get out the vote on election day.
I have been a member of the
Conservative Party for over fifty years, and I do not recall during that time a
more important general election than this. The only Party with the ability and
the power to take to take us through the Brexit negotiations is the
Conservative Party and we have been fortunate at this critical time to have in
Theresa May, as our Prime Minister, someone capable of doing it.
This election is about taking back
our sovereignty, regaining the ability for our Parliament to decide our laws
and thus the right of the British people to elect – and eject – those who rule
over them. It’s about bringing the interpretation of those laws back to our own
judiciary, schooled in the British legal tradition, and restoring our ability
to conclude treaties and trade with the world.
Compared to the usual election fare
these are existential questions, and the Conservative Party cannot and
must not lose this election by default. Every member must stretch
themselves to the maximum to overcome the obstacles in our way.
But before that can happen we need to
recognise that these obstacles exist, and high poll numbers alone won’t lift us
over them.
